Friday, January 30, 2015

Counting the Cost

Math is Hard
I'm not stupid, I'm just self aware that I don't think in terms of mathematics well at all.  It was my worst subject throughout school, contributing to any valleys in my education as a whole.  My ACT scores were 3 points lower because of it.  The first 'C' I ever earned - which came in college - all because of math.  Yuck.



However, really good tactical players - unlike myself, speaking frankly - learn to count odds and understand probabilities to win games.  I'm not as strategic or tactical minded as many, and I think that's ok.  It doesn't give me a license to be lazy, though.  Even though I can't really put together numbers like Riptide at Dice Masters Rules or count dice quite as efficiently as Nicholas at DiceAnon here, I can still offer an educated opinion on what to expect from playing lots of games.  And I've played a good chunk of games!

What We Know From History
If you played the Avengers v. X-Men set of Dice Masters in a vacuum, it seemed entirely foolish to put a 6 or 7 cost character on your team.  Most serious competitive builds just simply skipped anything that they couldn't count on buying rolling 4 - 5 dice.  Fortunately, with the PXG revolution* we've seen a much more interesting buy curve resulting from spamming it.  Teams that count on strategies from 5 or even 6 cost characters have actually become not just doable.  They're reliable.  This is an interesting time in the meta of the game.  It's a time when 2 or 3 cost characters and 5 or 6 cost characters have a place at the table.

So when do they sit down?  Ok...that metaphor a) is terrible and b) is clear as mud.  Let me rephrase.  When can you count on getting characters out and into your Reserve Pool of a certain cost?  Let's burn all the statistics papers out there and shred every math book and just talk game experience for a minute - that's in my wheelhouse.  We're also going to assume that you aren't using any churn-heavy strategies outside of PXG - stuff that gets more dice out of your bag earlier, like Gambit or Beast.  Here's my assessment.

As I mentioned above, 2- and 3-cost characters were pivotal to the early meta of the game because of sharp buying curve resting right over them.  Turn 3 is arguably the most important turn of the match because this is where your first two turns worth of buys manifest - unleashing your overarching strategies and your win condition.  Because you were only rolling 4 sidekicks on Turn 1 and 4 sidekicks on Turn 2, the absolutely maximum character you could buy would be a 4 cost.  Period.

Nothing has specifically changed here with 2- or 3-cost dice.  But what about 4- and 5-cost characters?  Well - get ready, because they are gonna be showing up on Turn 3.  Yep - that's right.  You don't have to wait for Turn 4 or 5 to start seeing what I call your "Clean Up Hitters" hit the field, and you don't have time to prepare for them.  I call them that because a lot of 4- or 5-costers have some sort of ability that is setting up your win.  It's something "When Fielded" or "When Active" that lets you get to the power position you want to be in to hit a home run.  Cyclops - Field Leader or Mr. Sinister - Nasty Boy are some examples of potential clean-up hitters.

So what about 6-cost characters?  This is where the big boys come to play - Hulk and Juggernaut and Thor.  These guys are swinging for the fences - err, more specifically for 7 + damage. The come in like rampaging bulls and give you the horns right out of the gate.  When you can you expect to see them?  Well...see above!  Turn 3!  That's right, you can't go to sleep in the new meta.  They're gonna hit the field, they're gonna be active and they're gonna hurt.  7-cost (or then even 8- through 10-cost!) characters are close enough to the line to say the same thing.

What's Your Point?
My point is this: be ready for everything by Turn 3.  Ev-er-y-thing.  You might say, "What the heck, that only gives me 2 turns to do something!"  You're right!  Buy optimally and be sure you're not glutting out your bag with concession buys.  Concession buys are the ones that start out with you saying, "Well, I guess since I didn't have [X] energy I'll just buy..."  Nope - you can't do that anymore.    In true competitive play you never could, but you get my meaning.  You've got to make each energy you spend count.

Until next time!

5 comments:

  1. To be fair, you're more likely to see 6 and 7 cost characters on turn 4. This is because on turn 2, you're only rolling 6 or 7 sidekicks and spending it all halts your ramp. If you end up not drawing the expensive character on turn 3, you'll really regret spending all your energy on it. If you had waited until turn 3 to buy, you would have both the expensive character you're shooting for AND a much healthier ramp. You're absolutely right that people need to be ready for turn 3, including their own turn 3.

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